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Ambinergia 2009 – Our participation – The peak of oil production

1. Our dependence on fossil fuels

Our societies are completely dependent on commercial energy. A reduction in the electricity supply of a city should cease any versatile transport electricity, elevators, traffic and street lights, residential lighting and commercial, most cooling systems, heating and cooking devices, communication devices (television to landlines or cell phones), the Most of the equipment of hospitals, malls, etc.. The lack of availability of liquid fossil fuels (mainly crude oil, coal and natural gas) would particularly affect transportation systems. It would be cars, buses, trucks (both the long-range transport and distribution local), aircraft, diesel trains and ships. As an important side effect in most countries, the lack of fossil fuels also significantly reduced electricity. Of course, industrial activity, and even modern agricultural production is based on a driven machine by commercial energy, primarily fossil fuels.

To quantify our current dependence on commercial energy, you can view the latest annual statistics of the OECD / IEA [1]. These data indicate that the proportion of energy in fossil energy total commercial consumption in the world is 80.9%, crude oil and accounts for only 34.2% of total energy. The lack of fossil fuels, Nuclear (6.2%), hydrocarbons (2.2%), geothermal and solar (0.6%) and renewables and waste (10.0%) [1]. These percentages show that the combination of alternatives to fossil fuels are, at present, a very small proportion of energy consumed overall.

When we look at transport in isolation, direct mass of fossil fuel is even higher, reaching 97.9%. Oil clearly dominates the oil, which alone accounts for 94.5% of the energy used in this sector and reach 100% in some transportation systems specific, such as aircraft.

These statistics illustrate the critical importance today of fossil fuels in general and in particular crude oil.

1. The concept of peak oil

Although mankind has been using fuel fuels (coal, in particular) for millennia, human exploration of fossil fuels have increased significantly from approximately 250 years, with heavy use of coal in the industrial revolution. However, the liquid fossil fuels (mainly crude oil), ended more convenient. Thus, over the past 150 years, mankind has always expanded exploration and extraction of crude oil, which in fact the largest single source of energy. During this period, production was raised to match the increasing demand generated by the increase in world population and economic development. The efficiency and convenience of fossil fuels can be gauged by the fact that significant technological advances that have occurred during this period increased steadily our dependence on this energy source, instead of creating effective alternatives.

Unfortunately, a human standpoint, the formation of fossil fuels is very slow and can therefore be considered as nonrenewable resources. Today, at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, world production of crude oil is close to the maximum you can reach, then the lack of availability and the strength to drop.

The analysis of world oil production in this region maximum, and consider mitigation options and the consequences of following the oil shortage on the rise, covered the new area of research called "Peak Oil" (PO).

It should be noted that in discussing the problem of "PO", the concern Main is not the end of oil as the main source of energy, but only the peak of its production and the consequent reduction availability, price increases and associated economic and social effects.

Peak Oil: A Brief History

The problem of peak production oil (PO) was introduced by MK Hubbert in 1949 [2]. Before that, several people have expressed their concern about the future availability crude oil, but these concerns are scientifically formulated and in most cases, the predictions are based on realistic principles of exhaustion crude oil. After this first presentation of the problem, Hubbert spent studying the issue and (in 1956) has published a very important [3], which accurately predicted the date of peak oil production in the United States Continental (except Alaska) would be around 1970. This document also the classical approach to the prediction of natural disasters (no restrictions) the production profile of a region of sufficient size (or world), and explained that the production should follow a bell curve. Initially, this paper generated much debate since the United States was then the largest oil producer in the world, and its production is increasing, with no apparent problem (in fact, has been limited by regulatory agencies as the Commission, "Texas Railroad," to avoid "flooding" of Contract). Finally, however, that prediction has proved correct, and which established the procedure of Hubbert's prediction. In 1971, Hubbert published a book in which he predicted that if they are kept modes production and demand, global production of conventional oil would peak around 2000 [4]. Given the delay strange effects of this policy limits the production 1970s and 1980s, this prediction seems to again be very close to being correct.

Hubbert is rightly regarded as the father of the field of research related to sustainable production of natural resources and the OP theory. His prediction technique, based on the installation a bell curve of production history and ultimately recoverable reserves (LACE), remains the most common method to predict the production future non-renewable natural resources, especially fossil fuels.

Focus primarily using Hubbert in 1998, Campbell and Laherrere presented a document to influence [5] should discuss peak oil in the short run production, and the prediction that occur "before 2010". This work has influenced "modern" debate on the issue of PO and its global impact of lead Campbell and others to create the ASPO [2], the first and currently the largest international organization dedicated to studying the problem of PO.

The estimated date of PO

Well that significantly challenged when the first time, the general idea of a future peak oil production is well accepted. Date limit for the summit, without however, remains controversial. Table 1 shows the distribution of predictions of the date of the total production of liquid fossil peaks [3] A number of specialized institutions and experts. This distribution list is a summary of forecasts made in 2000 or later, which is presented in [6].

This table shows that most forecasts indicate a PO date at the end of the decade. This is a strong indication that the date effect must be very close PO. As researchers whose estimates presented in the first half of Table 1, we also recognized guilty of a nearby peak production of liquid fossil fuels. Our own forecast – first presented at the 2005 conference of ASPO [7] and the latter appears in [6] – also underscores the interval 2008-2012, specifically in Table 1 shows a higher concentration predictions.

Regarding the large number of forecasts in Table 1 in 2023 or later, it is worth noting that until recently, a limited number of analysts and institutions to support the production of theory of peak oil is so far back in time to be relevant. Some of their predictions are presented in Table 1 in the interval "in 2023 or later." However, these forecasts are based on discredited models. For example, two of the estimates from 2023 or later, from the IEA (International Energy Agency), an organization that has recently acknowledged that its estimates for the production were simply on the basis of the estimated demand, and assuming that production would always be able to match.

Alternative Energy

As discussed above, is likely that we are very near the world record high for the production of fossil fuels liquids. As such, our societies must adapt to a new paradigm: instead of the comfortable situation of the last century, in which we relied on oil production can grow without major limitations to coincide with the gradual increase in demand, we must adapt to production decreases gradually. This new reality will have a major impact on the availability and prices of commercial energy used in each sector.

Excluding the transportation sector, dependence on liquid fuels are more limited, though with the inevitable difficulties of transition, our companies will probably be able to mitigate the resulting problems, eg, based on increased use of renewable technologies for electricity generation (such as wind farms, hydroelectric, geothermal plants, the conversion of solar energy, etc..)

However, in transport, oil dependence is so immense that it is difficult to imagine a transition relatively painless. Naturally, the use power can be increased and this can help solve environmental problems and sustainability in various types of transportation. For example, train modern energy systems such as mass transport can be very effective and attractive for users on networks Travel and Transportation long distance from the city. In addition, most modern cars use (eg commuting) can also be carried by vehicles electric. However, there are classes Transportation is not realistic, can provide such a solution, such as airplanes, trucks and ships to Long distance. For these classes, liquid fuels are much more convenient than any alternative available, although one can argue that the fuel gas, liquefied Coal or even in the case of ships, you can use if necessary.

In recent years, hydrogen has been the most discussed of gaseous fluids to replace fossil fuels. But hydrogen is only an energy carrier, not an energy source as petroleum oil. In addition, the path to the vaunted "hydrogen economy is blocked by several major technological problems and economic, and even questions of sustainability in the long term as they may worsen the ongoing disappearance "hydrogen" of our planet.

Other alternative fuels gas under study are mainly based on the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) or natural gas (NG). For many applications, the fuel gas can be a practical alternative to oil in the short term classics, but not a long term solution because they are non-renewable.

In respect of liquid fuels in addition to the fossil house, there is significant potential for the use of fuels biological sources. Currently, the "Biofuels represent only 1.1% of the energy used in transport sector (IEA, 2008). The ethanol produced from sugar cane in the semi-tropical climates, for example, Brazil is already close to being cost competitive with conventional fossil fuels, although it's far from true in the case of ethanol production from corn, beet and other agricultural products used in temperate climates. However, because of direct constraints on land availability, production biofuels on the basis of current technology is still very limited.

Liquid fuels can be produced in industrial gases gas treatment (for example, natural) or solid (eg coal), the fossil fuels, despite changes in the current economic problems and ecological. However, these alternatives to conventional oil have similar problems of availability in the future, which are also based consumption of limited fossil resources almost irreplaceable. During the last century, conventional oil proved the most valuable and practice of fossil fuels, so it was the most active extracts and consumed, and if now is a more advanced state of exhaustion. However, several authors have expressed serious concerns about relatively short-term "peak gas" [8] and a little farther from Coal peak [9].

1. Effects of Peak Oil

Since the early 20th century, rapid development of our civilization (in terms of number of population, living standards, technological progress, the ability to travel and freight transport on long distances, etc.) relied on a relatively unlimited supply of cheap energy. Crude oil was by far the largest component This provides increased energy practice. The exclusion of limited periods during the political crisis based on the energy of the seventies and eighties, until recently (perhaps until 2004) of our businesses have paid a very small share of its resources to pay for this food is absolutely vital. In fact, even as demand has increased significantly, technological advances in exploration of fossil resources allowed the existing cost of energy significantly lower during the last centuries. Fossil resources are a precious gift of nature. It takes Hundreds of millions of years to build, but now we eat faster – which gets to the point in about 4 centuries (2 centuries crude oil), a short time, even in the context of the history of mankind. Currently, we deliver the first significant signs of the world exhaustion, but we are still at levels of peak consumption, and near the historic low price (when evaluated in terms of energy costs as a proportion of world gross "domestic" products). The unbalanced relationship between the utility and convenience of liquid fossil fuels and its low prices, has created a situation in which our societies are able and willing to accept increases significant price to maintain current consumption patterns. This leads to demand in a very low price elasticity.

Figure 1 is a diagram illustrating quantitatively the curve "natural" production of crude oil (limited only by the availability of resources), calls the trend in the absence exhaustion of resources or the economic recession (ie, limited only by the actual historical prices, technological developments and less exponential growth), and the behavior of the application affects the current economic downturn, but without limitation to the PO future.

The contradiction between the natural evolution of the demand for liquid fossil fuels in a "non-regulated" stage of the supply and curve of real output in the summit area should be resolved since consumption can not exceed production. In production in recent years could no longer grow, as usual in the past, and thus the desired level of consumption should be reduced to match the curve production. As shown in Figure 1 illustrates what happened before the date of the absolute peak of production. Given the low elasticity of demand cons prices, this compression of demand forced can be achieved by a significant increase in prices.

This was clearly going until mid-2008, other factors (hurricanes in the Malaysian Government and the international economic crisis), has created other mechanisms compression application. In this new environment of declining demand, low elasticity between demand and price is now necessary price reductions very important to re-align production and demand (this time, adjusting to a temporary excess of production over demand). Interestingly, this new setting is not only the production side (through voluntary reductions in OPEC production), but also the side demand. In recent months, despite a clear worsening of the economic recession during this "low" price of fuel has led to a return progressive consumption patterns above. This is particularly noticeable in the United States, where, even in a difficult economic situation in the middle income upper, fuel prices relatively low to enable citizens to reflect fuel costs associated with "normal" driving habits (typical fuel prices and age before the economic crisis). In fact, most data points of the recent demand of the United States a significant recovery in consumption. Since very low levels of demand from one year to October 2008 you can see a steady recovery until the latest available (depending on the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report ", year over year demand recovered from a down about 8% in October 2008 a decline of only 0.1% in mid-February 2009).

An interesting side effect on economic crisis now is that she may have anticipated a couple of years, the "natural" Peak Oil date. As shown in Figure 1, the economic recession weighed on demand and output around the peak period, and it seems doubtful that when the world economic situation is restored production of fossil fuels liquid may still exceed those of 2007 and 2008.

1. Conclusions

At current prices lower fuel and concerns about the current economic recession overwhelming media have completely forgotten the concerns with an organization Short term began to surface with the high fuel prices in early 2008. However, as shown in Figure 1, in the near future again desired consumption will tend to exceed global production capacity. Due to the anticipated absence of large-scale efficacy of solutions alternative energy, it will increase the renewal of crude oil prices high and refined products. In addition, after the time when the crisis hits demand depressed by the production capacity of PP all point to an irreversible situation of world production is gradually reduced. This new situation with Production year lowest after year, will inevitably be more difficult for our society addicted to the previous peak hardening on benign 2004-2008.

For the crude oil industry, these are difficult times. The current relatively low price of oil, compounded by the credit crunch, leading to project delays and widespread even in some companies, receivership or bankruptcy. However, we know all a further increase in oil prices is inevitable – only the timing is uncertain. In addition, even the most cost-effective show alternative energy, the better our PO mitigation companies can count on to trust an effort to increase exploration and exploitation of new deposits, and efforts to limit the decline in output following areas of high activity. As such, our societies become increasingly dependent on an industry that is particularly affected by the current economic crisis. In this particular case, the best hope of mitigating the medium-term effects of the worst effects of peak oil seems to rest on the ability of OPEC to force crude oil prices within a fairly short — low enough to avoid jeopardizing the economic recovery as well, but high enough to allow continued investment in the oil industry.

1. References

[1] IEA, Energy Balances for 2006 the world. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2008.

[2] Hubbert, MK, the fossil fuel energy. Science, vol. 109, pp. 103-109, 1949.

[3] Hubbert, MK, nuclear energy and fossil fuels in the drill and practice Production, American Petroleum Institute, 1956.

[4] Hubbert, MK, energy resources in the earth, energy and power, Scientific American Book, chap. 3, pp. 30-40, 1971.

[5] Campbell, C. and Laherrere, J., The End of Oil Cheap, Scientific American, March 1998.

[6] Almeida, P. Silva, P., peak oil production – Calendar and market recognition, Energy Policy 37 (4), 1267-1276, 2009.

[7] Almeida, P. and Silva, P., and Peak Oil Market Nymex futures, where investors do not believe in physical reality? ", In Proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on Oil Depletion and gas Lisboa, Portugal, pp. 70-71, 2005.

[8] Simmons, MR, is the global supply of oil and gas during the time peak, the International Petroleum Week, London, February 13, 2007.  

[9] Zittel, W., Schindler, J., Coal: Resources and Future Production, EWG-Series No. 1 / 2007, Energy Watch Group, March 2007.

– It should be noted that electricity is not a source of energy – electricity production is based on sources referenced above with the rule of fuels fossils.

– ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

– For simplicity, the set of all fossil may be liquid called oil. Includes crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids and semi-intermediate forms between the liquid fossil fuels (eg oil sands or oil).

Authors:

Pedro de Almeida1? and D. Pedro Silva 2
1Computer Science Dep. University of Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal
2 Electromechanical Dep. University of Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal

About the Author

www.cepen.org
www.energiasportal.com

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